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COVID-19 in Alberta
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- Written by: Rod Boyle
- Category: Miscellany
- Hits: 1190
So, reading the news and almost all of it is bad and so I'll look a bit for the silver lining.
First off, the situation - worldwide - is appalling. Most countries - (not all) - have under-reacted and begun measures far too late. Spain, Italy, France, etc. are obvious examples. Less obvious examples - Australia - initiating isolating measures when their number of cases topped 1100. To compare - Alberta began shutting down and self isolating with 50 odd cases, less than 200 Cases nationwide. Note that when we began shutting down Australia had less cases than us - per capita probably roughly equal, they've since surpassed us. That's a big difference in containment - not merely big, but huge. We've already seen how overwhelmed testing and hospitals become - we have - Canadians - and especially Albertans - an incredible advantage.
The UK began quarantine measures - for comparison - at 6000 cases. The US hasn't yet begun - only a few states, the rest are in denial. Insufficient tests, Celebrities and Athletes first. If you can't see it, it doesn't exist. New Zealand has locked down at 100 cases - comparing populations to Canada that's still a bit late - but a hell of a lot better than any other English speaking country.
The rest of the world has stopped reporting. India, Bangladesh, most countries in Asia - haven't the resources. People live and die there without ever seeing a doctor - numbers will be calculated and estimated only years after it's over. Russia is on it's own page and given it's crackdown on "irresponsible" reporting will fall into the same category. Note that rates of infection record only the most serious cases, and even of those only a fraction of those are tested, and the numbers of people showing up as infected are generally 2 weeks into the curve and you have a real number more like 40,000,000 infected, not 400,000 - and even then I'm being conservative.
My own predictions - calculated at the current spread rates - see Alberta at approximately 639 cases by Saturday, BC at approximately 1509. The last 2 days reportage seem to confirm my math. If we show less then the curve is starting to flatten. More and more extreme measures will have to be taken. But the take away - if we hit Saturday, after 2 weeks of self-isolation, we should be proud. We won't have beaten it, but we'll have controlled it. BC and Ontario will be in for rougher times, not least because of the Border - closed a week (late), but because of their greater population and later steps taken in closing schools/restaurants/child-care services.
An old friend
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- Written by: Rod Boyle
- Category: Dreams
- Hits: 669
I'm somewhere and I hear from Lance - an old friend I haven't seen since University. He looks different, older, unrecognizable. We're going to go out, only at the moment I'm between 2 apartments, both half unpacked and filled with treasures, so I tell him I just want to go home, pick up my shoes, I'll meet him after...
Rooting through my belongings, half-packed or unpacked boxes...
Going to leave when a snake, small, venomous, bites me on the heel - I check; it hasn't punctured the skin, I should be fine, but my chance to meet Lance, it's gone...
***
A nap, later in the day, picks up on the same dream, Lance with a friend of his, tall, good looking African/American musician, we're in my other apartment, my Calgary one, and I'm looking for something to prepare for them...
A train wreck
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- Written by: Rod Boyle
- Category: People
- Hits: 649
Watching it all unfold in real time - it's a train wreck. Senators being busted having dumped their stocks before the market crash - using their foreknowledge of the Pandemic to warn friends to bunker down, sell off shares, invest in medical stocks...shitty celebrities singing "Imagine", when all everyone ever did was imagine they could be as rich and successful as them so they could self-quarantine without fear of poverty, food, rent or reprisals, and throughout it all the US - and UK's - fundamental inability to focus on the real issues that will end up destroying them.
There's the Fucked up Corona Virus tests: https://www.businessinsider.com/early-coronavirus-cdc-tests-distinguish-covid-water-2020-3
the bailouts for bankers and markets, (and for the senators that didn't get the "sell" notice), the spring-breakers and full London Pubs, and watching the news, the numbers climbing hourly - as of yesterday, 1000 new cases diagnosed per hour, today - ? Who knows. A lot of countries have stopped reporting - the US, UK, Russia amongst them - Russia's crackdown on "Fake News" related to the Corona-Virus, it's apparent - just watching the news - that a lot of countries have simply given up.
And America's optimism - Wow - every intelligent article that says "just do the right thing and you'll be fine" undermined by every living citizen. It's too late anyways - look at the numbers in Italy - a 1% mortality rate can quickly climb to 10% when the healthcare system gets overwhelmed. 10% of the US population isn't looking like such a far fetched scenario right now. About right now all they can do is wait and gather their dead, pile them up in front of the White House so their elected officials can see the tangible results of their inability to take real decisive action. Then - why bother, it's increasingly apparent they don't care...
It would be nice to imagine a positive outcome, a regime change in the US and abroad, but, far too early to say, and the virus so far isn't selecting for the poor.
12 Monkeys
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- Written by: Rod Boyle
- Category: Film
- Hits: 623
In full Apocalypse mode, watching the trailer and select scene from the old Dustin Hoffman film "Outbreak". Which was overall a pretty bad movie, but what's curious is how every character has their own agenda, plan, scheme...
As the reality unfolds we discover how optomistic - literally - those predictions were - even for the Villains.
And, after that "12 Monkeys" - which is grotesquely brilliant, Brad Pitt - Bruce Willis - both well outside their typecast roles, and both turning in amazingly relevant performances. Still a 5 star movie, and it hasn't aged badly, not a bit...
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