So, reading the news and almost all of it is bad and so I'll look a bit for the silver lining.

First off, the situation - worldwide - is appalling. Most countries - (not all) - have under-reacted and begun measures far too late. Spain, Italy, France, etc. are obvious examples. Less obvious examples - Australia - initiating isolating measures when their number of cases topped 1100. To compare - Alberta began shutting down and self isolating with 50 odd cases, less than 200 Cases nationwide. Note that when we began shutting down Australia had less cases than us - per capita probably roughly equal, they've since surpassed us. That's a big difference in containment - not merely big, but huge. We've already seen how overwhelmed testing and hospitals become - we have - Canadians - and especially Albertans - an incredible advantage. 

The UK began quarantine measures - for comparison - at 6000 cases. The US hasn't yet begun - only a few states, the rest are in denial. Insufficient tests, Celebrities and Athletes first.  If you can't see it, it doesn't exist. New Zealand has locked down at 100 cases - comparing populations to Canada that's still a bit late - but a hell of a lot better than any other English speaking country.

The rest of the world has stopped reporting. India, Bangladesh, most countries in Asia - haven't the resources. People live and die there without ever seeing a doctor - numbers will be calculated and estimated only years after it's over. Russia is on it's own page and given it's crackdown on "irresponsible" reporting will fall into the same category. Note that rates of infection record only the most serious cases, and even of those only a fraction of those are tested, and the numbers of people showing up as infected are generally 2 weeks into the curve and you have a real number more like 40,000,000 infected, not 400,000 - and even then I'm being conservative.

My own predictions - calculated at the current spread rates - see Alberta at approximately 639 cases by Saturday, BC at approximately 1509. The last 2 days reportage seem to confirm my math. If we show less then the curve is starting to flatten. More and more extreme measures will have to be taken. But the take away - if we hit Saturday, after 2 weeks of self-isolation, we should be proud. We won't have beaten it, but we'll have controlled it. BC and Ontario will be in for rougher times, not least because of the Border - closed a week (late), but because of their greater population and later steps taken in closing schools/restaurants/child-care services.

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